Deportivo Lara 0–0 Emelec: Result & Stats

Deportivo Lara

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Emelec

3/8/2019

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Metropolitano de Barquisimeto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Deportivo Lara22%

×Draw28%

Emelec49%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo LaraExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.33

Deportivo Lara

0.79

Emelec

1.33

Emelec creates 68% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

0.75

creates per match

1.17

1.50

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Deportivo Lara

0.75

Emelec

1.17

allows per match

Deportivo Lara

1.50

Emelec

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Lara+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Lara ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Lara or draw

51%

Deportivo Lara or Emelec

72%

Draw or Emelec

78%

Winning margin

Deportivo Lara wins by 2+

7%

Emelec wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Deportivo Lara 1+ goals

55%

Deportivo Lara 2+ goals

19%

Deportivo Lara 3+ goals

5%

Emelec 1+ goals

74%

Emelec 2+ goals

38%

Emelec 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Lara (draw refunded)

31%

Emelec (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Lara at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Lara attack 0.75 + Emelec defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Emelec attack 1.17 + Deportivo Lara defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Lara scores more

22%

level

28%

Emelec scores more

49%

Emelec at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Romario Caicedo

Emelec · M

7.8

Match Events

16'

Brayan AnguloMissed penalty

26'

34'

38'

49'

58'

58'

Freddy Vargas← Lorenzo Frutos

61'

Fernando Guerrero← Bryan Cabezas

69'

Jaime Moreno← Jaime Moreno

69'

Holger Matamoros← Gabriel Cortez

82'

Richard Figueroa← Jesus Bueno

83'

Freddy Vargas

86'

Joao Rojas← Billy Arce

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoEmelec

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots7

5Corners2

19Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots7

2On Target1

5Off Target5

0Blocked1

1Inside Box3

6Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

326Total Passes380

245Accurate Passes295

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4