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Emelec vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
4/5/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 7Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Emelec52%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Cuenca21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.48
Deportivo Cuenca
0.84

Emelec creates 76% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 131 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.47
Deportivo Cuenca
0.85

allows per match

Emelec
0.83
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
79%
Emelec or Deportivo Cuenca
74%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
48%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
27%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
77%
Emelec 2+ goals
43%
Emelec 3+ goals
19%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
57%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
21%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
71%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + Emelec defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Emelec scores more
52%
level
26%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
21%

Emelec at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Emelec 0–2 Deportivo Cuenca

Deportivo Cuenca beat Emelec 2-0 in Liga Pro on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio George Capwell in Guayaquil.