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Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
12/20/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Placement Group - 10Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca44%
×Draw26%
Emelec30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cuenca
1.44
Emelec
1.15

Deportivo Cuenca creates 25% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 132 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.55
Emelec
1.17

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.14
Emelec
1.33

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw
70%
Deportivo Cuenca or Emelec
74%
Draw or Emelec
56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
21%
Emelec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
18%
Emelec 1+ goals
68%
Emelec 2+ goals
32%
Emelec 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
59%
Emelec (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 130 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.55 + Emelec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

Emelec attack 1.17 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more
44%
level
26%
Emelec scores more
30%

Deportivo Cuenca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Deportivo Cuenca 5–1 Emelec

Deportivo Cuenca beat Emelec 5-1 in Liga Pro on December 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar in Cuenca.