Emelec 2–1 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Cuenca

M. Bolaños 89', 13'

L. Mancinelli 49' (pen)

3/10/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Emelec63%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Cuenca13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.58

Emelec

1.63

Deportivo Cuenca

0.58

Emelec creates 181% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

0.25

0.92

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Emelec

1.50

Deportivo Cuenca

0.25

allows per match

Emelec

0.92

Deportivo Cuenca

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

87%

Emelec or Deportivo Cuenca

76%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

37%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

35%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

80%

Emelec 2+ goals

48%

Emelec 3+ goals

22%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

44%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

12%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

83%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.50 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.25 + Emelec defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Emelec scores more

63%

level

24%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

13%

Emelec at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

M. Bolaños

Emelec · M

9.3

Match Events

13'

M. Bolaños↳ D. García

35'

38'

45'

46'

46'

49'

L. MancinelliPenalty

58'

Rodrigo Melo

60'

Ronny Biojo

65'

B. Angulo← A. Cabeza

65'

E. Dávila← N. Rinaldi

65'

R. Becerra← E. López

76'

J. Sánchez← D. García

86'

M. Caicedo← R. Caicedo

86'

J. Cevallos← D. Arroyo

89'

S. Mina← B. Rivera

89'

M. Bolaños↳ J. Sánchez

90+6'

Aníbal Leguizamón

90+5'

Brayan AnguloGoal cancelled

90+7'

Sergio López

90+1'

V. Branda← R. Biojo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecDeportivo

Overview

59%Possession41%

25Total Shots6

8Corners0

13Fouls16

Shots

25Total Shots6

10On Target2

8Off Target3

7Blocked1

16Inside Box3

9Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

485Total Passes341

403Accurate Passes245

83%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

13Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

3Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Emelec 2–1 Deportivo Cuenca

Emelec beat Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 10, 2023.

Goals: M. Bolaños (13', 89'), L. Mancinelli (49' pen).

Emelec controlled possession (59%) and registered 25 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio George Capwell in Guayaquil.

Emelec vs Deportivo Cuenca — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Emelec 2–1 Deportivo Cuenca