Emelec 2–0 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Deportivo Cuenca

E. Pernía 42'

J. Rojas 3'

9/27/2020

Liga Pro · 1° Turno - 14Estadio Banco del Pacífico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Emelec38%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Cuenca37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.39

Emelec

1.41

Deportivo Cuenca

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.26

creates per match

1.29

1.49

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Emelec

1.26

Deportivo Cuenca

1.29

allows per match

Emelec

1.49

Deportivo Cuenca

1.56

-0.59scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Emelec-0.59scores less

Deportivo Cuenca+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

63%

Emelec or Deportivo Cuenca

75%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

62%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

76%

Emelec 2+ goals

41%

Emelec 3+ goals

17%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

51%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.49 · 6 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.26 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.29 + Emelec defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Emelec scores more

38%

level

25%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

37%

Emelec at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

J. Rojas

34'

A. Leguizamon

38'

J. Quinonez

40'

A. Zapata

42'

E. Pernía↳ B. Cabezas

46'

J. Bolaños← S. Ojeda

55'

P. Ortiz

63'

R. Burbano← A. Zapata

64'

65'

65'

65'

67'

73'

M. Hernández← B. Cabezas

82'

82'

83'

83'

86'

W. Godoy← J. Cevallos

89'

D. Neculman← J. Caicedo

90+4'

R. Viotti

Emelec

Deportivo

26

Heras

7

Mancinell

6

▼

18

11

8

16

▼

Jerves

77

▼

20

15

9

12

26

2

24

8

21

▼

Cevallos

14

Caicedo

23

A

▼

Cabezas

11

▼

Zapata

10

⚽

Rojas

7

⚽

Pernía

Manager: Ismael Rescalvo

63'▲R. Burbano←▼A. Zapata

73'▲M. Hernández←▼B. Cabezas

86'▲W. Godoy←▼J. Cevallos

Emelec substitutes

40Burbano15Hernández37Godoy3Quintero16Bagüí1Bone19Pineda5Arroyo

Manager: T. Silva

46'▲J. Bolaños←▼S. Ojeda

64'▲I. Zúñiga←▼D. Jerves

89'▲D. Neculman←▼J. Caicedo

Deportivo Cuenca substitutes

25Bolaños23Zúñiga19Neculman13Armijos60Jiménez10Foliados27Aguirre22Thiago4Cagua

Match Recap: Emelec vs Deportivo Cuenca

Emelec beat Deportivo Cuenca 2-0 in Liga Pro on September 27, 2020.

Goals: J. Rojas (3'), E. Pernía (42').

The match was played at Estadio Banco del Pacífico in Guayaquil.

Emelec vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Emelec vs Deportivo Cuenca