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Emelec vs Deportes Tolima — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
5/19/2021CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio Banco del Pacífico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Emelec53%
×Draw29%
Deportes Tolima18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.31
Deportes Tolima
0.63

Emelec creates 108% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.50
Deportes Tolima
0.33

allows per match

Emelec
0.92
Deportes Tolima
1.11

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
82%
Emelec or Deportes Tolima
71%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
47%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
25%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
73%
Emelec 2+ goals
38%
Emelec 3+ goals
14%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
47%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
13%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
75%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.50 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Deportes Tolima attack 0.33 + Emelec defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Emelec scores more
53%
level
29%
Deportes Tolima scores more
18%

Emelec at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Emelec vs Deportes Tolima

Emelec beat Deportes Tolima 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Banco del Pacífico in Guayaquil.