Deportes Tolima 1–1 Emelec: Result & Stats

Deportes Tolima

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Emelec

S. Mosquera 22' (pen)

A. Zapata 41'

5/8/2021

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Deportes Tolima39%

×Draw29%

Emelec31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes TolimaExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.99

Deportes Tolima

1.15

Emelec

0.99

Deportes Tolima creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

1.18

0.80

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Deportes Tolima

1.20

Emelec

1.18

allows per match

Deportes Tolima

0.80

Emelec

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw

69%

Deportes Tolima or Emelec

71%

Draw or Emelec

61%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

16%

Emelec wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

68%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

32%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

11%

Emelec 1+ goals

63%

Emelec 2+ goals

26%

Emelec 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

56%

Emelec (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.20 + Emelec defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Emelec attack 1.18 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more

39%

level

29%

Emelec scores more

31%

Deportes Tolima at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Rodríguez

Emelec · M

7.7

Match Events

12'

Jaminton Campaz

22'

S. MosqueraPenalty

41'

45'

46'

52'

64'

J. Orejuela← D. Arroyo

64'

J. Cevallos← J. Rojas

65'

J. Rodríguez← B. Carabalí

68'

Romario Caicedo

76'

O. Albornoz← L. Miranda

81'

J. Hernández← A. Estupiñán

81'

87'

87'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesEmelec

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots17

4Corners3

18Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots17

7On Target7

3Off Target5

4Blocked5

7Inside Box8

7Outside Box9

Passing

49%Possession51%

413Total Passes432

293Accurate Passes327

71%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0

Match Recap: Deportes Tolima vs Emelec

Deportes Tolima and Emelec drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 8, 2021.

Goals: S. Mosquera (22' pen), A. Zapata (41').

Emelec controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.

Deportes Tolima vs Emelec — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportes Tolima vs Emelec