Emelec 1–2 Defensa Y Justicia: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Defensa Y Justicia

B. Carabalí 5'

G. Togni 90+1'

N. Fernández 87'

8/2/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Emelec44%

×Draw26%

Defensa Y Justicia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchDefensa Y Justicia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.15

Emelec

1.44

Defensa Y Justicia

1.15

Emelec creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 21 away

1.50

creates per match

1.38

0.92

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Emelec

1.50

Defensa Y Justicia

1.38

allows per match

Emelec

0.92

Defensa Y Justicia

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Defensa Y Justicia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

70%

Emelec or Defensa Y Justicia

74%

Draw or Defensa Y Justicia

56%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

21%

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

76%

Emelec 2+ goals

42%

Emelec 3+ goals

18%

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

68%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

32%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

59%

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.50 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.38 + Emelec defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Emelec scores more

44%

level

26%

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

30%

Emelec at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

T. Cardona

Defensa Y Justicia · D

7.9

Match Events

1'

Nicolás Fernández

5'

B. Carabalí↳ J. Cevallos

40'

Luis Fernando León

52'

Bryan Carabalí

63'

A. Zapata← J. Cevallos

63'

E. Lastre← D. García

63'

G. Alanís← S. Solari

71'

Pedro Ortiz

75'

M. Carcelén← C. Villalba

75'

J. Sánchez← S. Sosa

76'

L. Pratto← A. SantAnna

87'

N. Fernández↳ L. Pratto

90'

T. Escalante← N. Fernández

90+1'

G. Togni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecDefensa

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots21

3Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots21

3On Target8

4Off Target6

1Blocked7

4Inside Box11

4Outside Box10

Passing

36%Possession64%

273Total Passes483

180Accurate Passes381

66%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Emelec 1–2 Defensa Y Justicia

Defensa Y Justicia beat Emelec 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 2, 2023.

Goals: B. Carabalí (5'), N. Fernández (87'), G. Togni (90+1').

Defensa Y Justicia controlled possession (64%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio George Capwell in Guayaquil.

Emelec vs Defensa Y Justicia — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Emelec 1–2 Defensa Y Justicia