Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Emelec: Result & Stats

Defensa Y Justicia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Emelec

D. Barbona 62'

8/9/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Único Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia36%

×Draw28%

Emelec36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensa Y JusticiaExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.14

Defensa Y Justicia

1.15

Emelec

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

1.18

1.10

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.20

Emelec

1.18

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.10

Emelec

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw

64%

Defensa Y Justicia or Emelec

72%

Draw or Emelec

64%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

15%

Emelec wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

68%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

32%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

11%

Emelec 1+ goals

68%

Emelec 2+ goals

32%

Emelec 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

50%

Emelec (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + Emelec defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Emelec attack 1.18 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

36%

level

28%

Emelec scores more

36%

Defensa Y Justicia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

G. Togni

Defensa Y Justicia · F

8.2

Match Events

35'

Carlos Villalba

59'

Michael Carcelén

62'

D. Barbona↳ G. Togni

67'

A. Zapata← J. Cevallos

77'

J. López← S. Solari

78'

C. Valencia← C. Villalba

82'

82'

87'

87'

89'

L. Pratto← N. Fernández

89'

D. Cáceres← G. Togni

90+2'

M. Duarte← D. Barbona

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DefensaEmelec

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots14

8Corners4

9Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots14

5On Target4

6Off Target5

3Blocked5

8Inside Box5

6Outside Box9

Passing

44%Possession56%

298Total Passes397

206Accurate Passes300

69%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2