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Emelec vs Danubio — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Danubio
Danubio
E. Lastre 64'
B. Carabalí 36'
D. Vera 68'
6/29/2023CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Emelec42%
×Draw27%
Danubio31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.32
Danubio
1.10

Emelec creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.50
Danubio
1.29

allows per match

Emelec
0.92
Danubio
1.14

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Danubio+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Danubio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
69%
Emelec or Danubio
73%
Draw or Danubio
58%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
19%
Danubio wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
73%
Emelec 2+ goals
38%
Emelec 3+ goals
15%
Danubio 1+ goals
67%
Danubio 2+ goals
30%
Danubio 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
57%
Danubio (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Danubio away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.50 + Danubio defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Danubio attack 1.29 + Emelec defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Emelec scores more
42%
level
27%
Danubio scores more
31%

Emelec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
B. CarabalíEmelecEmelec · D
7.7

Match Events

-5'
Leandro Sosa
33'
Lucas Ferreira
36'
S. Romero← L. Sosa
36'
B. Carabalí↳ J. Cevallos
44'
Carlos Villalba
46'
G. May← J. Sarmiento
51'
Edgar Lastre
63'
Santiago Romero
64'
Brayan Angulo
64'
E. Lastre↳ R. Caicedo
65'
D. Vera← S. Fernández
68'
D. Vera↳ R. Haller
72'
S. Silva← L. Ferreira
74'
J. Sánchez← E. Lastre
75'
J. Alberti← J. Cevallos
83'
C. Valencia← D. García
85'
Kevin Lewis
89'
B. Agrón← B. Carabalí
90+2'
José Alberti

Possession

58%Emelec

Shots

14Emelec

Pass accuracy

55%Emelec

Statistics

EmelecDanubio
Overview
58%Possession42%
14Total Shots17
3Corners2
9Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots17
5On Target7
7Off Target5
2Blocked5
10Inside Box7
4Outside Box10
Passing
58%Possession42%
433Total Passes308
336Accurate Passes200
78%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls14
4Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Emelec vs Danubio

Emelec beat Danubio 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on June 29, 2023.

Goals: B. Carabalí (36'), E. Lastre (64'), D. Vera (68').

Emelec controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio George Capwell in Guayaquil.