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Danubio vs Emelec — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Danubio
Danubio
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
G. May 90'
J. Millán 5'
4/5/2023CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Danubio31%
×Draw35%
Emelec34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Danubio
0.80
Emelec
0.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Danubio
0.50
Emelec
1.18

allows per match

Danubio
0.50
Emelec
1.09

finishing

Danubio+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Danubio ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Danubio or draw
66%
Danubio or Emelec
65%
Draw or Emelec
69%

Winning margin

Danubio wins by 2+
10%
Emelec wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Danubio 1+ goals
55%
Danubio 2+ goals
19%
Danubio 3+ goals
5%
Emelec 1+ goals
57%
Emelec 2+ goals
21%
Emelec 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Danubio (draw refunded)
48%
Emelec (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Danubio at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Danubio attack 0.50 + Emelec defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.80

Emelec attack 1.18 + Danubio defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Danubio scores more
31%
level
35%
Emelec scores more
34%

Emelec at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
J. MillánDanubioDanubio · M
7.9

Match Events

5'
J. Millán
53'
Caín Fara
54'
J. Sánchez← B. Agrón
64'
D. Vera← S. Fernández
64'
S. Silva← F. González
69'
J. Alberti← C. Valencia
69'
E. Lastre← R. Caicedo
73'
K. Lewis← L. Sosa
73'
S. Etchebarne← A. Cruz
74'
T. Chamba← A. Cabeza
82'
S. Romero← F. Saravia
90+4'
Santiago Etchebarne
90+5'
Edgar Lastre
90'
G. May↳ K. Lewis

Possession

46%Danubio

Shots

18Danubio

Pass accuracy

51%Danubio

Statistics

DanubioEmelec
Overview
46%Possession54%
18Total Shots10
5Corners5
16Fouls6
Shots
18Total Shots10
7On Target1
9Off Target8
2Blocked1
10Inside Box3
8Outside Box7
Passing
46%Possession54%
445Total Passes525
370Accurate Passes424
83%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls6
1Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Danubio vs Emelec

Danubio beat Emelec 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 5, 2023.

Goals: J. Millán (5'), G. May (90').

Emelec controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.