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Emelec vs Club Guarani — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Club Guarani
Club Guarani
6/8/2023CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Emelec56%
×Draw23%
Club Guarani21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.80
Club Guarani
1.02

Emelec creates 76% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.50
Club Guarani
1.11

allows per match

Emelec
0.92
Club Guarani
2.11

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Club Guarani+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Club Guarani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
79%
Emelec or Club Guarani
77%
Draw or Club Guarani
44%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
31%
Club Guarani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
83%
Emelec 2+ goals
54%
Emelec 3+ goals
27%
Club Guarani 1+ goals
64%
Club Guarani 2+ goals
27%
Club Guarani 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
72%
Club Guarani (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.50 + Club Guarani defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Club Guarani attack 1.11 + Emelec defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Emelec scores more
56%
level
23%
Club Guarani scores more
21%

Emelec at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Emelec 1–1 Club Guarani

Emelec and Club Guarani drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on June 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio George Capwell in Guayaquil.