Club Guarani 1–1 Emelec: Result & Stats

Club Guarani

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Emelec

F. Santander 63'

A. Cabeza 83'

5/4/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Manuel Ferreira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Club Guarani40%

×Draw28%

Emelec32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club GuaraniExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.09

Club Guarani

1.27

Emelec

1.09

Club Guarani creates 17% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.45

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Club Guarani

1.45

Emelec

1.18

allows per match

Club Guarani

1.00

Emelec

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw

68%

Club Guarani or Emelec

72%

Draw or Emelec

60%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+

18%

Emelec wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals

72%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

36%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

14%

Emelec 1+ goals

66%

Emelec 2+ goals

30%

Emelec 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

56%

Emelec (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.45 + Emelec defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Emelec attack 1.18 + Club Guarani defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Club Guarani scores more

40%

level

28%

Emelec scores more

32%

Club Guarani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

H. Dorrego

Club Guarani · M

7.9

Match Events

61'

R. Benitez← L. Fariña

61'

E. Moreira← G. Gil Romero

61'

C. Villalba← C. Valencia

61'

D. García← E. Lastre

63'

F. Santander↳ H. Dorrego

70'

M. Palau← F. Barceló

70'

J. Alberti← J. Cevallos

76'

Carlos Villalba

80'

J. Espinoza← T. Chamba

80'

J. Pérez← J. Sánchez

83'

A. Cabeza↳ C. Villalba

87'

Diego García

89'

K. Lezcano← D. Ríos

90+5'

Marcelo Palau

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubEmelec

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots8

4Corners3

13Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots8

5On Target3

7Off Target4

0Blocked1

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

470Total Passes428

376Accurate Passes340

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Club Guarani 1–1 Emelec

Club Guarani and Emelec drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 4, 2023.

Goals: F. Santander (63'), A. Cabeza (83').

Club Guarani controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Ferreira in Asunción.

Club Guarani vs Emelec — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Club Guarani 1–1 Emelec