Emelec 3–0 Bragantino: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bragantino

A. Cabeza 86'

A. Zapata 64'

Aderlan 49' (OG)

4/29/2021

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Banco del Pacífico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Emelec35%

×Draw26%

Bragantino39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchBragantino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.41

Emelec

1.33

Bragantino

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

1.50

creates per match

1.89

0.92

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Emelec

1.50

Bragantino

1.89

allows per match

Emelec

0.92

Bragantino

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Bragantino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Bragantino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

61%

Emelec or Bragantino

74%

Draw or Bragantino

65%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

16%

Bragantino wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

74%

Emelec 2+ goals

38%

Emelec 3+ goals

15%

Bragantino 1+ goals

76%

Bragantino 2+ goals

41%

Bragantino 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

48%

Bragantino (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Bragantino away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.50 + Bragantino defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bragantino attack 1.89 + Emelec defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Emelec scores more

35%

level

26%

Bragantino scores more

39%

Bragantino at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

P. Ortíz

Emelec · G

8.2

Match Events

14'

Á. Gracia← B. Carabalí

15'

Luca Sosa

28'

Dixon Arroyo

49'

AderlanOwn goal

61'

64'

71'

73'

74'

Pedrinho← Helinho

78'

Chrigor← Ytalo

79'

J. Orejuela← A. Zapata

79'

J. Rojas← F. Barcelo

85'

Pedro Ortiz

86'

A. Cabeza

87'

T. Cuello← Artur

88'

B. Sánchez← A. Cabeza

88'

Ramires← Lucas Evangelista

88'

Vitinho← Claudinho

89'

J. Cevallos← D. Arroyo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecBragantino

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots19

4Corners6

12Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots19

5On Target5

6Off Target5

4Blocked9

10Inside Box5

5Outside Box14

Passing

53%Possession47%

458Total Passes399

380Accurate Passes327

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls17

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0