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Bragantino vs Emelec — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Bragantino
Bragantino
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
Artur 82'
Fabrício Bruno 29'
5/11/2021CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bragantino51%
×Draw26%
Emelec24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bragantino
1.54
Emelec
0.97

Bragantino creates 59% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bragantino
2.00
Emelec
1.18

allows per match

Bragantino
0.76
Emelec
1.09

finishing

Bragantino+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bragantino ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bragantino or draw
76%
Bragantino or Emelec
74%
Draw or Emelec
49%

Winning margin

Bragantino wins by 2+
26%
Emelec wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bragantino 1+ goals
79%
Bragantino 2+ goals
45%
Bragantino 3+ goals
20%
Emelec 1+ goals
62%
Emelec 2+ goals
25%
Emelec 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bragantino (draw refunded)
68%
Emelec (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bragantino at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bragantino attack 2.00 + Emelec defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.54

Emelec attack 1.18 + Bragantino defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bragantino scores more
51%
level
26%
Emelec scores more
24%

Bragantino at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
Fabrício BrunoBragantinoBragantino · D
8.7

Match Events

28'
J. Orejuela← F. Barcelo
29'
Fabrício Bruno↳ Claudinho
57'
Aníbal Leguizamón
60'
T. Cuello← Jadsom Silva
61'
J. Caicedo← D. Arroyo
67'
Luca Sosa
71'
Marlon Mejía
75'
Sebastián Rodriguez
82'
Artur↳ Ytalo
84'
Claudinho
87'
B. Sánchez← A. Zapata
90'
Cleiton
90+3'
J. Hurtado← Ytalo

Possession

51%Bragantino

Shots

21Bragantino

Pass accuracy

49%Bragantino

Statistics

BragantinoEmelec
Overview
51%Possession49%
21Total Shots11
2Corners4
22Fouls11
Shots
21Total Shots11
9On Target4
7Off Target4
5Blocked3
15Inside Box6
6Outside Box5
Passing
51%Possession49%
422Total Passes391
327Accurate Passes313
77%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves7
Discipline
22Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
0Offsides4

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Bragantino 2–0 Emelec

Bragantino beat Emelec 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 11, 2021.

Goals: Fabrício Bruno (29'), Artur (82').

Bragantino controlled possession (51%) and registered 21 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Bragança Paulista, São Paulo.