Emelec 2–0 Blooming: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Blooming

R. Burbano 57'

J. Cevallos 27'

2/20/2020

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Banco del Pacífico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Emelec67%

×Draw22%

Blooming12%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchBlooming

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.60

Emelec

1.82

Blooming

0.60

Emelec creates 203% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

0.29

0.92

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Emelec

1.50

Blooming

0.29

allows per match

Emelec

0.92

Blooming

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Blooming+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Blooming →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

88%

Emelec or Blooming

78%

Draw or Blooming

33%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

40%

Blooming wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

84%

Emelec 2+ goals

54%

Emelec 3+ goals

27%

Blooming 1+ goals

45%

Blooming 2+ goals

12%

Blooming 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

85%

Blooming (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Blooming away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.50 + Blooming defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

Blooming attack 0.29 + Emelec defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Emelec scores more

67%

level

22%

Blooming scores more

12%

Emelec at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Cevallos

Emelec · M

7.7

Match Events

22'

C. Menacho

23'

J. Cevallos

27'

J. Cevallos↳ F. Barcelo

35'

M. Mejia

45+2'

L. Vargas← J. Carrasco

52'

C. Menacho

54'

E. Vaca← J. Vaca

57'

R. Burbano

65'

O. Bagüí← M. Hernández

70'

J. Rojas← F. Barcelo

74'

X. Pineda← J. Cevallos

78'

J. Orozco← C. Menacho

79'

X. Pineda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecBlooming

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots7

4Corners2

7Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots7

4On Target1

1Off Target6

2Blocked0

5Inside Box2

2Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

164Total Passes187

127Accurate Passes163

77%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1