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Blooming vs Emelec — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Blooming
Blooming
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Emelec
Emelec
F. Barcelo 90+4', 28'
D. Arroyo 87'
2/6/2020CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Blooming31%
×Draw25%
Emelec45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blooming
1.27
Emelec
1.59

Emelec creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Blooming
1.44
Emelec
1.18

allows per match

Blooming
2.00
Emelec
1.09

finishing

Blooming+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blooming ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Blooming or draw
55%
Blooming or Emelec
75%
Draw or Emelec
69%

Winning margin

Blooming wins by 2+
13%
Emelec wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Blooming 1+ goals
72%
Blooming 2+ goals
36%
Blooming 3+ goals
14%
Emelec 1+ goals
80%
Emelec 2+ goals
47%
Emelec 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Blooming (draw refunded)
41%
Emelec (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blooming at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blooming attack 1.44 + Emelec defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Emelec attack 1.18 + Blooming defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blooming scores more
31%
level
25%
Emelec scores more
45%

Emelec at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
F. BarceloEmelecEmelec · F
8.7

Match Events

28'
F. Barcelo↳ R. Burbano
32'
José María Carrasco
46'
J. Veizaga← Juninho
46'
E. Sánchez← H. Gutiérrez
51'
Pedro Ortiz
62'
J. Herrera← J. Vaca
70'
D. Arroyo← J. Rojas
77'
B. Cabezas← R. Burbano
86'
J. Caicedo← A. Zapata
87'
D. Arroyo↳ J. Caicedo
90+4'
F. Barcelo

Possession

42%Blooming

Shots

5Blooming

Pass accuracy

46%Blooming

Statistics

BloomingEmelec
Overview
42%Possession58%
5Total Shots13
4Corners8
13Fouls7
Shots
5Total Shots13
2On Target7
2Off Target3
1Blocked3
2Inside Box6
3Outside Box7
Passing
42%Possession58%
387Total Passes533
281Accurate Passes451
73%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Blooming 0–3 Emelec

Emelec beat Blooming 3-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on February 6, 2020.

Goals: F. Barcelo (28', 90+4'), D. Arroyo (87').

Emelec controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.