Emelec 0–4 Barcelona SC: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Emelec

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Barcelona SC

9/14/2025

Liga Pro · Round 28Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Emelec42%

×Draw27%

Barcelona SC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.08

Emelec

1.32

Barcelona SC

1.08

Emelec creates 22% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 133 away

1.47

creates per match

1.34

0.83

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Emelec

1.47

Barcelona SC

1.34

allows per match

Emelec

0.83

Barcelona SC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

70%

Emelec or Barcelona SC

73%

Draw or Barcelona SC

58%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

19%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

73%

Emelec 2+ goals

38%

Emelec 3+ goals

15%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

66%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

29%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

58%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Barcelona SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Barcelona SC attack 1.34 + Emelec defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Emelec scores more

42%

level

27%

Barcelona SC scores more

30%

Emelec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff