Emelec 0–1 Barcelona SC: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Barcelona SC

2/12/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Emelec28%

×Draw28%

Barcelona SC44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.30

Emelec

0.97

Barcelona SC

1.30

Barcelona SC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.20

creates per match

2.00

0.60

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Emelec

1.20

Barcelona SC

2.00

allows per match

Emelec

0.60

Barcelona SC

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

56%

Emelec or Barcelona SC

72%

Draw or Barcelona SC

72%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

10%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

62%

Emelec 2+ goals

25%

Emelec 3+ goals

7%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

73%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

37%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

39%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.20 + Barcelona SC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.97

Barcelona SC attack 2.00 + Emelec defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Emelec scores more

28%

level

28%

Barcelona SC scores more

44%

Barcelona SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff