Emelec 1–1 Atletico-MG: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico-MG

S. Rodríguez 58' (pen)

Ademir 16'

6/28/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Emelec45%

×Draw27%

Atletico-MG28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.04

Emelec

1.41

Atletico-MG

1.04

Emelec creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 27 away

2.00

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Emelec

2.00

Atletico-MG

1.07

allows per match

Emelec

1.00

Atletico-MG

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Atletico-MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

72%

Emelec or Atletico-MG

73%

Draw or Atletico-MG

55%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

22%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

76%

Emelec 2+ goals

41%

Emelec 3+ goals

17%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

65%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

28%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

62%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 2.00 + Atletico-MG defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atletico-MG attack 1.07 + Emelec defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Emelec scores more

45%

level

27%

Atletico-MG scores more

28%

Emelec at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Rodríguez

Emelec · M

8.0

Match Events

16'

Ademir↳ I. Fernández

33'

Bruno Pittón

55'

Alejandro CabezaPenalty awarded

56'

Nathan Silva

58'

S. RodríguezPenalty

65'

Eddie Guevara

67'

AllanCard upgrade

68'

Jackson Rodríguez

68'

Jackson RodríguezCard upgrade

68'

Allan

70'

Dixon Arroyo

72'

R. Caicedo← J. Cevallos

72'

D. Vera← J. Rodríguez

81'

M. Quiroga← A. Cabeza

84'

E. Vargas← Ademir

86'

Marlon Mejía

89'

Réver← Rubens

90+4'

R. Garcés← M. Mejía

90+2'

Calebe← I. Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecAtletico-MG

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots8

4Corners3

19Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots8

3On Target4

6Off Target3

6Blocked1

8Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

428Total Passes318

358Accurate Passes240

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls9

5Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3