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Atletico-MG vs Emelec — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Atletico-MG
Atletico-MGadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
Hulk 79' (pen)
7/5/2022CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atletico-MG45%
×Draw27%
Emelec28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico-MG
1.38
Emelec
1.03

Atletico-MG creates 34% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 6 away

creates per match

Atletico-MG
1.93
Emelec
1.17

allows per match

Atletico-MG
0.89
Emelec
0.83

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw
72%
Atletico-MG or Emelec
73%
Draw or Emelec
55%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+
21%
Emelec wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals
75%
Atletico-MG 2+ goals
40%
Atletico-MG 3+ goals
16%
Emelec 1+ goals
64%
Emelec 2+ goals
28%
Emelec 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)
62%
Emelec (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 1.93 + Emelec defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.38

Emelec attack 1.17 + Atletico-MG defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atletico-MG scores more
45%
level
27%
Emelec scores more
28%

Atletico-MG at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
I. FernándezAtletico-MGAtletico-MG · M
8.0

Match Events

29'
Dixon Arroyo
41'
Romario Caicedo
45+1'
Nacho Fernández
60'
M. Zaracho← Rubens
60'
Eduardo Sasha← Calebe
61'
Jackson Rodríguez
64'
Nathan Silva
70'
J. Cevallos← B. Pittón
79'
HulkPenalty
81'
Marlon Mejía
81'
Neto← E. Vargas
82'
A. Leguizamón← R. Caicedo
82'
M. Quiroga← A. Zapata
88'
Á. Gracia← J. Rodríguez
90+5'
Éverson
90+2'
Réver← I. Fernández

Possession

59%Atletico-MG

Shots

21Atletico-MG

Pass accuracy

55%Atletico-MG

Statistics

Atletico-MGEmelec
Overview
59%Possession41%
21Total Shots6
8Corners2
12Fouls13
Shots
21Total Shots6
5On Target1
10Off Target2
6Blocked3
16Inside Box1
5Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
507Total Passes362
431Accurate Passes253
85%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls13
3Yellow Cards4
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Atletico-MG vs Emelec

Atletico-MG beat Emelec 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on July 5, 2022.

Goals: Hulk (79' pen).

Atletico-MG controlled possession (59%) and registered 21 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.