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EM Mahdia vs Djelma — Ligue 2 2020

EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Djelma
Djelma
2/18/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Ahmed Khouaja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

EM Mahdia50%
×Draw27%
Djelma23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EM Mahdia
1.40
Djelma
0.84

EM Mahdia creates 67% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 38 away

creates per match

EM Mahdia
1.21
Djelma
0.55

allows per match

EM Mahdia
1.14
Djelma
1.58

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par
Djelma+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

Djelma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw
77%
EM Mahdia or Djelma
73%
Draw or Djelma
50%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+
24%
Djelma wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals
75%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
41%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
17%
Djelma 1+ goals
57%
Djelma 2+ goals
21%
Djelma 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
69%
Djelma (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

Djelma away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + Djelma defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.40

Djelma attack 0.55 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

EM Mahdia scores more
50%
level
27%
Djelma scores more
23%

EM Mahdia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "EM Mahdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EM Mahdia vs Djelma

EM Mahdia beat Djelma 2-0 in Ligue 2 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Khouaja in Mahdia.