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Djelma vs EM Mahdia — Ligue 2 2020

Djelma
Djelma
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
A. Fahlouchi 40'
E. Meftah 90+4'
A. Mehamedi 68'
10/22/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade de Jilma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Djelma48%
×Draw30%
EM Mahdia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djelma
1.21
EM Mahdia
0.71

Djelma creates 70% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

creates per match

Djelma
1.16
EM Mahdia
0.73

allows per match

Djelma
0.68
EM Mahdia
1.27

finishing

Djelma+0.00on par
EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djelma ↓

EM Mahdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Djelma or draw
78%
Djelma or EM Mahdia
70%
Draw or EM Mahdia
52%

Winning margin

Djelma wins by 2+
21%
EM Mahdia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Djelma 1+ goals
70%
Djelma 2+ goals
34%
Djelma 3+ goals
12%
EM Mahdia 1+ goals
51%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
16%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Djelma (draw refunded)
69%
EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djelma at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.68 · 38 matches

EM Mahdia away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djelma attack 1.16 + EM Mahdia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

EM Mahdia attack 0.73 + Djelma defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Djelma scores more
48%
level
30%
EM Mahdia scores more
22%

Djelma at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Djelma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
A. Fahlouchi
68'
A. Mehamedi
90+4'
E. Meftah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djelma vs EM Mahdia

EM Mahdia beat Djelma 2-1 in Ligue 2 on October 22, 2023.

Goals: A. Fahlouchi (40'), A. Mehamedi (68'), E. Meftah (90+4').

The match was played at Stade de Jilma in Jilma.