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EM Mahdia vs AS Marsa — Ligue 2 2020

EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
AS Marsa
AS Marsa
Unknown 90'
M. H. Jertila 87'
A. Ben Hamida 82'
5/11/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade Ahmed Khouaja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

EM Mahdia29%
×Draw28%
AS Marsa43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EM Mahdia
0.98
AS Marsa
1.26

AS Marsa creates 29% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 24 away

creates per match

EM Mahdia
1.21
AS Marsa
1.38

allows per match

EM Mahdia
1.14
AS Marsa
0.75

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par
AS Marsa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

AS Marsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw
57%
EM Mahdia or AS Marsa
72%
Draw or AS Marsa
71%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+
10%
AS Marsa wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals
62%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
26%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
8%
AS Marsa 1+ goals
72%
AS Marsa 2+ goals
36%
AS Marsa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
40%
AS Marsa (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

AS Marsa away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + AS Marsa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.98

AS Marsa attack 1.38 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

EM Mahdia scores more
29%
level
28%
AS Marsa scores more
43%

AS Marsa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AS Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'
A. Ben Hamida
87'
M. H. Jertila
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EM Mahdia vs AS Marsa

AS Marsa beat EM Mahdia 2-1 in Ligue 2 on May 11, 2025.

Goals: A. Ben Hamida (82'), M. H. Jertila (87'), ? (90').

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Khouaja in Mahdia.