EM Mahdia 1–3 AS Marsa: Result & Stats | Cup

EM Mahdia

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

AS Marsa

1/19/2025

Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Ahmed Khouaja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

EM Mahdia22%

×Draw22%

AS Marsa56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EM MahdiaExpected goals in this matchAS Marsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

2.00

EM Mahdia

1.17

AS Marsa

2.00

AS Marsa creates 71% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

EM Mahdia

1.33

AS Marsa

2.00

allows per match

EM Mahdia

2.00

AS Marsa

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par

AS Marsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

AS Marsa →

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw

44%

EM Mahdia or AS Marsa

78%

Draw or AS Marsa

78%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+

AS Marsa wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals

69%

EM Mahdia 2+ goals

33%

EM Mahdia 3+ goals

11%

AS Marsa 1+ goals

86%

AS Marsa 2+ goals

59%

AS Marsa 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)

28%

AS Marsa (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

AS Marsa away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.33 + AS Marsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

AS Marsa attack 2.00 + EM Mahdia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

EM Mahdia scores more

22%

level

22%

AS Marsa scores more

56%

AS Marsa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AS Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff