Elverum 5–1 Bodø / Glimt II: Result & Stats

Elverum

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Bodø / Glimt II

9/15/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 21Elverum Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Elverum81%

×Draw11%

Bodø / Glimt II8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElverumExpected goals in this matchBodø / Glimt II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.68

1.14

Elverum

3.68

Bodø / Glimt II

1.14

Elverum creates 223% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

3.32

creates per match

0.90

1.37

allows per match

4.05

creates per match

Elverum

3.32

Bodø / Glimt II

0.90

allows per match

Elverum

1.37

Bodø / Glimt II

4.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elverum+0.00on par

Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elverum ↓

Bodø / Glimt II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Elverum or draw

92%

Elverum or Bodø / Glimt II

89%

Draw or Bodø / Glimt II

19%

Winning margin

Elverum wins by 2+

65%

Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Elverum 1+ goals

97%

Elverum 2+ goals

87%

Elverum 3+ goals

69%

Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals

68%

Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals

32%

Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Elverum (draw refunded)

91%

Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elverum at home — creates 3.32, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Bodø / Glimt II away — creates 0.90, concedes 4.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elverum attack 3.32 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 4.05 → ÷2 → 3.68

Bodø / Glimt II attack 0.90 + Elverum defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Elverum scores more

81%

level

11%

Bodø / Glimt II scores more

8%

Elverum at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Elverum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff