Bodø / Glimt II 0–1 Elverum: Result & Stats

Bodø / Glimt II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Elverum

4/14/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 2Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bodø / Glimt II22%

×Draw19%

Elverum59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodø / Glimt IIExpected goals in this matchElverum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.40

Bodø / Glimt II

1.42

Elverum

2.40

Elverum creates 69% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.58

creates per match

2.11

2.68

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Bodø / Glimt II

1.58

Elverum

2.11

allows per match

Bodø / Glimt II

2.68

Elverum

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par

Elverum+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodø / Glimt II ↓

Elverum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Bodø / Glimt II or draw

41%

Bodø / Glimt II or Elverum

81%

Draw or Elverum

78%

Winning margin

Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+

9%

Elverum wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals

76%

Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals

41%

Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals

17%

Elverum 1+ goals

91%

Elverum 2+ goals

69%

Elverum 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)

27%

Elverum (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodø / Glimt II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

Elverum away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodø / Glimt II attack 1.58 + Elverum defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Elverum attack 2.11 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bodø / Glimt II scores more

22%

level

19%

Elverum scores more

59%

Elverum at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Elverum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff