Elverum 3–1 Åssiden IF: Result & Stats

Elverum

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Åssiden IF

6/21/2025

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 11Elverum Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Elverum79%

×Draw12%

Åssiden IF9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElverumExpected goals in this matchÅssiden IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.46

1.16

Elverum

3.46

Åssiden IF

1.16

Elverum creates 198% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

4.08

creates per match

1.46

0.85

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Elverum

4.08

Åssiden IF

1.46

allows per match

Elverum

0.85

Åssiden IF

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elverum+0.00on par

Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elverum ↓

Åssiden IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Elverum or draw

91%

Elverum or Åssiden IF

88%

Draw or Åssiden IF

21%

Winning margin

Elverum wins by 2+

61%

Åssiden IF wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Elverum 1+ goals

97%

Elverum 2+ goals

85%

Elverum 3+ goals

65%

Åssiden IF 1+ goals

69%

Åssiden IF 2+ goals

32%

Åssiden IF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Elverum (draw refunded)

90%

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elverum at home — creates 4.08, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elverum attack 4.08 + Åssiden IF defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 3.46

Åssiden IF attack 1.46 + Elverum defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Elverum scores more

79%

level

12%

Åssiden IF scores more

9%

Elverum at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Elverum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff