Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Åssiden IF vs Elverum — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Elverum
Elverum
8/16/20253. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 16Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åssiden IF25%
×Draw19%
Elverum55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åssiden IF
1.67
Elverum
2.50

Elverum creates 50% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Åssiden IF
1.96
Elverum
2.46

allows per match

Åssiden IF
2.54
Elverum
1.38

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par
Elverum+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Elverum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw
45%
Åssiden IF or Elverum
81%
Draw or Elverum
75%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+
12%
Elverum wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals
81%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
50%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
23%
Elverum 1+ goals
92%
Elverum 2+ goals
71%
Elverum 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
31%
Elverum (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Elverum away — creates 2.46, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 1.96 + Elverum defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.67

Elverum attack 2.46 + Åssiden IF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Åssiden IF scores more
25%
level
19%
Elverum scores more
55%

Elverum at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Elverum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Åssiden IF vs Elverum

Elverum beat Åssiden IF 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Åssiden Stadion in Drammen.