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Elversberg II vs Ahrweiler BC — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Elversberg II
Elversberg II
FT
3 – 1
Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
4/8/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 5Friedrichsthal Rasen 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Elversberg II49%
×Draw20%
Ahrweiler BC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elversberg II
2.42
Ahrweiler BC
1.92

Elversberg II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Elversberg II
1.00
Ahrweiler BC
0.83

allows per match

Elversberg II
3.00
Ahrweiler BC
3.83

finishing

Elversberg II+0.00on par
Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elversberg II ↓

Ahrweiler BC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Elversberg II or draw
69%
Elversberg II or Ahrweiler BC
80%
Draw or Ahrweiler BC
51%

Winning margin

Elversberg II wins by 2+
30%
Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Elversberg II 1+ goals
91%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
69%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
43%
Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
85%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
57%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Elversberg II (draw refunded)
61%
Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elversberg II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Ahrweiler BC away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elversberg II attack 1.00 + Ahrweiler BC defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Ahrweiler BC attack 0.83 + Elversberg II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Elversberg II scores more
49%
level
20%
Ahrweiler BC scores more
31%

Elversberg II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Elversberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Relegation Round: Elversberg II 3–1 Ahrweiler BC

Elversberg II beat Ahrweiler BC 3-1 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Friedrichsthal Rasen 2 in Friedrichsthal.