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Ahrweiler BC vs Elversberg II — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
FT
3 – 1
Elversberg II
Elversberg II
5/20/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 11Heimersheim Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ahrweiler BC39%
×Draw23%
Elversberg II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahrweiler BC
1.67
Elversberg II
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ahrweiler BC
1.17
Elversberg II
1.33

allows per match

Ahrweiler BC
2.00
Elversberg II
2.17

finishing

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par
Elversberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrweiler BC ↓

Elversberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ahrweiler BC or draw
61%
Ahrweiler BC or Elversberg II
77%
Draw or Elversberg II
61%

Winning margin

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
19%
Elversberg II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
81%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
50%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
23%
Elversberg II 1+ goals
81%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
50%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
50%
Elversberg II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrweiler BC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Elversberg II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrweiler BC attack 1.17 + Elversberg II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.67

Elversberg II attack 1.33 + Ahrweiler BC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ahrweiler BC scores more
39%
level
23%
Elversberg II scores more
39%

Ahrweiler BC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ahrweiler BC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ahrweiler BC vs Elversberg II

Ahrweiler BC beat Elversberg II 3-1 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Heimersheim Kunstrasen in Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler.