Eltersdorf 0–1 Eintracht Bamberg: Result & Stats

Eltersdorf

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Eintracht Bamberg

J. Gebhart 55'

4/28/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 30Sportanlage Langenau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Eltersdorf45%

×Draw25%

Eintracht Bamberg30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EltersdorfExpected goals in this matchEintracht Bamberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.19

Eltersdorf

1.51

Eintracht Bamberg

1.19

Eltersdorf creates 27% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

1.75

creates per match

1.70

0.68

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Eltersdorf

1.75

Eintracht Bamberg

1.70

allows per match

Eltersdorf

0.68

Eintracht Bamberg

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eltersdorf+0.00on par

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltersdorf ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Eltersdorf or draw

70%

Eltersdorf or Eintracht Bamberg

75%

Draw or Eintracht Bamberg

55%

Winning margin

Eltersdorf wins by 2+

22%

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Eltersdorf 1+ goals

78%

Eltersdorf 2+ goals

44%

Eltersdorf 3+ goals

19%

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals

70%

Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals

33%

Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Eltersdorf (draw refunded)

60%

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltersdorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.68 · 68 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltersdorf attack 1.75 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.51

Eintracht Bamberg attack 1.70 + Eltersdorf defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eltersdorf scores more

45%

level

25%

Eintracht Bamberg scores more

30%

Eltersdorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

J. Gebhart

90+5'

J. Hartwig

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff