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Eintracht Bamberg vs Eltersdorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Eltersdorf
Eltersdorf
5/9/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 33Fuchs-Park-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg45%
×Draw24%
Eltersdorf31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Bamberg
1.67
Eltersdorf
1.34

Eintracht Bamberg creates 25% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 68 away

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg
2.21
Eltersdorf
1.78

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg
0.91
Eltersdorf
1.13

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par
Eltersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

Eltersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw
69%
Eintracht Bamberg or Eltersdorf
76%
Draw or Eltersdorf
55%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
24%
Eltersdorf wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
81%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
50%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
23%
Eltersdorf 1+ goals
74%
Eltersdorf 2+ goals
39%
Eltersdorf 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
59%
Eltersdorf (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Eltersdorf away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 2.21 + Eltersdorf defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Eltersdorf attack 1.78 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more
45%
level
24%
Eltersdorf scores more
31%

Eintracht Bamberg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Eintracht Bamberg 1–1 Eltersdorf

Eintracht Bamberg and Eltersdorf drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 9, 2026.

The match was played at Fuchs-Park-Stadion in Bamberg.