Eltersdorf 3–0 ASV Neumarkt: Result & Stats

Eltersdorf

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ASV Neumarkt

5/2/2026

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 32Sportanlage Langenau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Eltersdorf52%

×Draw24%

ASV Neumarkt24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EltersdorfExpected goals in this matchASV Neumarkt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.13

Eltersdorf

1.76

ASV Neumarkt

1.13

Eltersdorf creates 56% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

1.75

creates per match

1.58

0.68

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Eltersdorf

1.75

ASV Neumarkt

1.58

allows per match

Eltersdorf

0.68

ASV Neumarkt

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eltersdorf+0.00on par

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltersdorf ↓

ASV Neumarkt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Eltersdorf or draw

76%

Eltersdorf or ASV Neumarkt

76%

Draw or ASV Neumarkt

48%

Winning margin

Eltersdorf wins by 2+

29%

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Eltersdorf 1+ goals

83%

Eltersdorf 2+ goals

52%

Eltersdorf 3+ goals

26%

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals

68%

ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals

31%

ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Eltersdorf (draw refunded)

68%

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltersdorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.68 · 68 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltersdorf attack 1.75 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.76

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Eltersdorf defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Eltersdorf scores more

52%

level

24%

ASV Neumarkt scores more

24%

Eltersdorf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff