ASV Neumarkt 0–2 Eltersdorf: Result & Stats

ASV Neumarkt

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Eltersdorf

10/18/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 15Stadion am Deininger Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ASV Neumarkt34%

×Draw24%

Eltersdorf42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASV NeumarktExpected goals in this matchEltersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.64

ASV Neumarkt

1.44

Eltersdorf

1.64

Eltersdorf creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

1.76

creates per match

1.78

1.49

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt

1.76

Eltersdorf

1.78

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt

1.49

Eltersdorf

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Eltersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

Eltersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw

58%

ASV Neumarkt or Eltersdorf

76%

Draw or Eltersdorf

66%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+

16%

Eltersdorf wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals

76%

ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals

42%

ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals

18%

Eltersdorf 1+ goals

81%

Eltersdorf 2+ goals

49%

Eltersdorf 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)

44%

Eltersdorf (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

Eltersdorf away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + Eltersdorf defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Eltersdorf attack 1.78 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more

34%

level

24%

Eltersdorf scores more

42%

Eltersdorf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff