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Eltendorf vs Bad Sauerbrunn — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Eltendorf
Eltendorf
CANC
00:00
Bad Sauerbrunn
Bad Sauerbrunn
4/18/2020Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 22Navigat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Eltendorf43%
×Draw21%
Bad Sauerbrunn36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eltendorf
2.03
Bad Sauerbrunn
1.84

Eltendorf creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 85 away

creates per match

Eltendorf
2.50
Bad Sauerbrunn
1.55

allows per match

Eltendorf
2.13
Bad Sauerbrunn
1.56

finishing

Eltendorf+0.00on par
Bad Sauerbrunn+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltendorf ↓

Bad Sauerbrunn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Eltendorf or draw
64%
Eltendorf or Bad Sauerbrunn
79%
Draw or Bad Sauerbrunn
57%

Winning margin

Eltendorf wins by 2+
24%
Bad Sauerbrunn wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Eltendorf 1+ goals
87%
Eltendorf 2+ goals
60%
Eltendorf 3+ goals
33%
Bad Sauerbrunn 1+ goals
84%
Bad Sauerbrunn 2+ goals
55%
Bad Sauerbrunn 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Eltendorf (draw refunded)
55%
Bad Sauerbrunn (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltendorf at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Bad Sauerbrunn away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltendorf attack 2.50 + Bad Sauerbrunn defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.03

Bad Sauerbrunn attack 1.55 + Eltendorf defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Eltendorf scores more
43%
level
21%
Bad Sauerbrunn scores more
36%

Eltendorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Eltendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Eltendorf host Bad Sauerbrunn

April 18, 2020: Eltendorf take on Bad Sauerbrunn in Landesliga - Burgenland. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Eltendorf host Bad Sauerbrunn at Navigat Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.