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Bad Sauerbrunn vs Eltendorf — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Bad Sauerbrunn
Bad Sauerbrunn
FT
3 – 2
Eltendorf
Eltendorf
9/13/2019Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 7Wetterkreuzstadion Bad Sauerbrunn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bad Sauerbrunn55%
×Draw21%
Eltendorf24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Sauerbrunn
2.12
Eltendorf
1.34

Bad Sauerbrunn creates 58% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bad Sauerbrunn
1.80
Eltendorf
1.00

allows per match

Bad Sauerbrunn
1.69
Eltendorf
2.44

finishing

Bad Sauerbrunn+0.00on par
Eltendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Sauerbrunn ↓

Eltendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bad Sauerbrunn or draw
76%
Bad Sauerbrunn or Eltendorf
79%
Draw or Eltendorf
45%

Winning margin

Bad Sauerbrunn wins by 2+
33%
Eltendorf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bad Sauerbrunn 1+ goals
88%
Bad Sauerbrunn 2+ goals
62%
Bad Sauerbrunn 3+ goals
35%
Eltendorf 1+ goals
74%
Eltendorf 2+ goals
39%
Eltendorf 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bad Sauerbrunn (draw refunded)
70%
Eltendorf (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Sauerbrunn at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.69 · 88 matches

Eltendorf away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Sauerbrunn attack 1.80 + Eltendorf defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.12

Eltendorf attack 1.00 + Bad Sauerbrunn defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bad Sauerbrunn scores more
55%
level
21%
Eltendorf scores more
24%

Bad Sauerbrunn at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bad Sauerbrunn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Bad Sauerbrunn 3–2 Eltendorf

Bad Sauerbrunn beat Eltendorf 3-2 in Landesliga - Burgenland on September 13, 2019.

The match was played at Wetterkreuzstadion Bad Sauerbrunn in Bad Sauerbrunn.