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Elmina Sharks vs Eleven Wonders — Premier League 2019

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
2 – 1
Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
6/11/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Elmina Sharks54%
×Draw26%
Eleven Wonders20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.52
Eleven Wonders
0.82

Elmina Sharks creates 85% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 58 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.26
Eleven Wonders
0.60

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
1.05
Eleven Wonders
1.79

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Eleven Wonders+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Eleven Wonders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
80%
Elmina Sharks or Eleven Wonders
74%
Draw or Eleven Wonders
46%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
28%
Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
78%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
45%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
20%
Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
56%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
20%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
73%
Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Eleven Wonders away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.79 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.26 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Eleven Wonders attack 0.60 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
54%
level
26%
Eleven Wonders scores more
20%

Elmina Sharks at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elmina Sharks vs Eleven Wonders

Elmina Sharks beat Eleven Wonders 2-1 in Premier League on June 11, 2021.

The match was played at Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium in Elmina.