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Eleven Wonders vs Elmina Sharks — Premier League 2019

Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
FT
0 – 0
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
2/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Eleven Wonders51%
×Draw27%
Elmina Sharks22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eleven Wonders
1.41
Elmina Sharks
0.81

Eleven Wonders creates 74% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 41 away

creates per match

Eleven Wonders
1.05
Elmina Sharks
0.59

allows per match

Eleven Wonders
1.03
Elmina Sharks
1.76

finishing

Eleven Wonders+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wonders ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Eleven Wonders or draw
78%
Eleven Wonders or Elmina Sharks
73%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
49%

Winning margin

Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
25%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
76%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
41%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
17%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
56%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
19%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
70%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wonders at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wonders attack 1.05 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.41

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eleven Wonders scores more
51%
level
27%
Elmina Sharks scores more
22%

Eleven Wonders at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eleven Wonders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eleven Wonders vs Elmina Sharks

Eleven Wonders and Elmina Sharks drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 3, 2021.

The match was played at Ohene Ameyaw Park in Techiman.