Elmina Sharks 1–0 Ebony FC: Result & Stats

Elmina Sharks

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ebony FC

2/21/2026

Division One League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elmina Sharks47%

×Draw27%

Ebony FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elmina SharksExpected goals in this matchEbony FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.00

Elmina Sharks

1.43

Ebony FC

1.00

Elmina Sharks creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.33

creates per match

1.07

0.93

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Elmina Sharks

1.33

Ebony FC

1.07

allows per match

Elmina Sharks

0.93

Ebony FC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Ebony FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Ebony FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw

74%

Elmina Sharks or Ebony FC

73%

Draw or Ebony FC

53%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+

23%

Ebony FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals

76%

Elmina Sharks 2+ goals

42%

Elmina Sharks 3+ goals

17%

Ebony FC 1+ goals

63%

Ebony FC 2+ goals

26%

Ebony FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)

64%

Ebony FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Ebony FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.33 + Ebony FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ebony FC attack 1.07 + Elmina Sharks defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more

47%

level

27%

Ebony FC scores more

26%

Elmina Sharks at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff