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Ebony FC vs Elmina Sharks — Division One League 2025

Ebony FC
Ebony FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
11/1/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebony FC44%
×Draw36%
Elmina Sharks20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebony FC
0.94
Elmina Sharks
0.54

Ebony FC creates 74% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ebony FC
0.60
Elmina Sharks
0.67

allows per match

Ebony FC
0.40
Elmina Sharks
1.27

finishing

Ebony FC+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebony FC ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–112%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Ebony FC or draw
80%
Ebony FC or Elmina Sharks
64%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
56%

Winning margin

Ebony FC wins by 2+
16%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ebony FC 1+ goals
61%
Ebony FC 2+ goals
24%
Ebony FC 3+ goals
7%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
42%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
10%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ebony FC (draw refunded)
68%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebony FC at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebony FC attack 0.60 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.94

Elmina Sharks attack 0.67 + Ebony FC defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ebony FC scores more
44%
level
36%
Elmina Sharks scores more
20%

Ebony FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ebony FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Ebony FC 0–0 Elmina Sharks

Ebony FC and Elmina Sharks drew 0-0 in Division One League on November 1, 2025.