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Elmina Sharks vs Bibiani Gold Stars — Premier League 2019

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
2 – 1
Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
M. Alhaji 78'
E. Agblenyo 32'
P. Owusu 46'
11/21/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Elmina Sharks49%
×Draw28%
Bibiani Gold Stars24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.38
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.88

Elmina Sharks creates 57% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 84 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.26
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.70

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
1.05
Bibiani Gold Stars
1.50

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Bibiani Gold Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
76%
Elmina Sharks or Bibiani Gold Stars
72%
Draw or Bibiani Gold Stars
51%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
23%
Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
75%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
40%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
16%
Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
59%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
22%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
67%
Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Bibiani Gold Stars away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.26 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 0.70 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
49%
level
28%
Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
24%

Elmina Sharks at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
32'
E. Agblenyo
35'
45+2'
46'
P. Owusu
78'
M. Alhaji
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Elmina Sharks 2–1 Bibiani Gold Stars

Elmina Sharks beat Bibiani Gold Stars 2-1 in Premier League on November 21, 2021.

Goals: E. Agblenyo (32'), P. Owusu (46'), M. Alhaji (78').

The match was played at Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium in Elmina.