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Bibiani Gold Stars vs Elmina Sharks — Premier League 2019

Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
G. Kyei 40'
3/20/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Bibiani Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Bibiani Gold Stars63%
×Draw24%
Elmina Sharks13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.67
Elmina Sharks
0.60

Bibiani Gold Stars creates 178% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 41 away

creates per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.58
Elmina Sharks
0.59

allows per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
0.61
Elmina Sharks
1.76

finishing

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bibiani Gold Stars ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bibiani Gold Stars or draw
87%
Bibiani Gold Stars or Elmina Sharks
76%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
37%

Winning margin

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
36%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
81%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
50%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
23%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
45%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
12%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
83%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bibiani Gold Stars at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.61 · 84 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 1.58 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.67

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
63%
level
24%
Elmina Sharks scores more
13%

Bibiani Gold Stars at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bibiani Gold Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
G. Kyei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bibiani Gold Stars 1–0 Elmina Sharks

Bibiani Gold Stars beat Elmina Sharks 1-0 in Premier League on March 20, 2022.

Goals: G. Kyei (40').

The match was played at Bibiani Park in Bibiani.