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Elmina Sharks vs Berekum Chelsea — Premier League 2019

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
1/23/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Elmina Sharks50%
×Draw27%
Berekum Chelsea23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.41
Berekum Chelsea
0.87

Elmina Sharks creates 62% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 110 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.25
Berekum Chelsea
0.72

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
1.02
Berekum Chelsea
1.56

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Berekum Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
77%
Elmina Sharks or Berekum Chelsea
73%
Draw or Berekum Chelsea
50%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
24%
Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
76%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
41%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
17%
Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
58%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
22%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
68%
Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.25 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.72 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
50%
level
27%
Berekum Chelsea scores more
23%

Elmina Sharks at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
41'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elmina Sharks vs Berekum Chelsea

Elmina Sharks and Berekum Chelsea drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium in Elmina.