Berekum Chelsea 3–0 Elmina Sharks: Result & Stats

Berekum Chelsea

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Elmina Sharks

C. Ameyaw 65'

H. Ainsu 32'

E. Sarpong 15'

5/29/2022

Premier League · Round 31Golden City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Berekum Chelsea60%

×Draw25%

Elmina Sharks14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Berekum ChelseaExpected goals in this matchElmina Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.59

Berekum Chelsea

1.54

Elmina Sharks

0.59

Berekum Chelsea creates 161% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 41 away

1.32

creates per match

0.59

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea

1.32

Elmina Sharks

0.59

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea

0.59

Elmina Sharks

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Elmina Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw

86%

Berekum Chelsea or Elmina Sharks

75%

Draw or Elmina Sharks

40%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+

32%

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals

79%

Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals

45%

Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals

20%

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals

45%

Elmina Sharks 2+ goals

12%

Elmina Sharks 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)

81%

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.59 · 111 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more

60%

level

25%

Elmina Sharks scores more

14%

Berekum Chelsea at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

E. Sarpong

32'

H. Ainsu

65'

C. Ameyaw

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff