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Elmina Sharks vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
2/7/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Elmina Sharks38%
×Draw31%
Asante Kotoko31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.06
Asante Kotoko
0.94

Elmina Sharks creates 13% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 110 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.25
Asante Kotoko
0.85

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
1.02
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
69%
Elmina Sharks or Asante Kotoko
69%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
62%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
15%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
65%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
29%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
9%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
61%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
24%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
55%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.25 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.06

Asante Kotoko attack 0.85 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
38%
level
31%
Asante Kotoko scores more
31%

Elmina Sharks at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Elmina Sharks 2–1 Asante Kotoko

Elmina Sharks beat Asante Kotoko 2-1 in Premier League on February 7, 2022.

The match was played at Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium in Elmina.