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Asante Kotoko vs Elmina Sharks — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
0 – 1
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
T. Mensah 56'
7/18/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Asante Kotoko61%
×Draw25%
Elmina Sharks14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.61
Elmina Sharks
0.62

Asante Kotoko creates 160% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 41 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
Elmina Sharks
0.59

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.65
Elmina Sharks
1.76

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
86%
Asante Kotoko or Elmina Sharks
75%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
39%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
34%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
80%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
48%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
22%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
46%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
13%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
81%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.65 · 110 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.61

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
61%
level
25%
Elmina Sharks scores more
14%

Asante Kotoko at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
T. Mensah
61'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Asante Kotoko 0–1 Elmina Sharks

Elmina Sharks beat Asante Kotoko 1-0 in Premier League on July 18, 2021.

Goals: T. Mensah (56').

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.