Elmina Sharks 1–1 Accra Lions: Result & Stats

Elmina Sharks

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Accra Lions

2/27/2022

Premier League · Round 18Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Elmina Sharks51%

×Draw27%

Accra Lions21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elmina SharksExpected goals in this matchAccra Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.80

Elmina Sharks

1.41

Accra Lions

0.80

Elmina Sharks creates 76% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 67 away

1.25

creates per match

0.58

1.02

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Elmina Sharks

1.25

Accra Lions

0.58

allows per match

Elmina Sharks

1.02

Accra Lions

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Accra Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw

79%

Elmina Sharks or Accra Lions

73%

Draw or Accra Lions

49%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+

25%

Accra Lions wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals

76%

Elmina Sharks 2+ goals

41%

Elmina Sharks 3+ goals

17%

Accra Lions 1+ goals

55%

Accra Lions 2+ goals

19%

Accra Lions 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)

71%

Accra Lions (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.57 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.25 + Accra Lions defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Accra Lions attack 0.58 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more

51%

level

27%

Accra Lions scores more

21%

Elmina Sharks at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff