Accra Lions 1–1 Elmina Sharks: Result & Stats

Accra Lions

FT

1 – 1

Elmina Sharks

S. Rauf 81'

M. Sarpong 65'

10/29/2021

Premier League · Round 1Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Accra Lions57%

×Draw26%

Elmina Sharks17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accra LionsExpected goals in this matchElmina Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.71

Accra Lions

1.54

Elmina Sharks

0.71

Accra Lions creates 117% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 41 away

1.32

creates per match

0.59

0.84

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Accra Lions

1.32

Elmina Sharks

0.59

allows per match

Accra Lions

0.84

Elmina Sharks

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Elmina Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw

83%

Accra Lions or Elmina Sharks

74%

Draw or Elmina Sharks

43%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+

30%

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals

79%

Accra Lions 2+ goals

45%

Accra Lions 3+ goals

20%

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals

51%

Elmina Sharks 2+ goals

16%

Elmina Sharks 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)

77%

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Accra Lions scores more

57%

level

26%

Elmina Sharks scores more

17%

Accra Lions at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

R. Abubakar← R. Abubakar

65'

M. Sarpong

65'

C. Obeng← C. Obeng

66'

S. Turkson← S. Turkson

69'

S. Arthur

73'

S. Fatawu← F. Dandawa

74'

F. Hegan← F. Hegan

77'

O. Awudu← O. Awudu

81'

S. Rauf

88'

J. Mensah← J. Mensah

90'

M. Alhaji← S. Turkson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff