Eleven Wonders 0–2 Swedru All Blacks

Eleven Wonders

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Swedru All Blacks

12/5/2025

Premier League · Round 13University of Ghana Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eleven Wonders41%

×Draw30%

Swedru All Blacks29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eleven WondersExpected goals in this matchSwedru All Blacks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.90

Eleven Wonders

1.15

Swedru All Blacks

0.90

Eleven Wonders creates 28% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 17 away

1.05

creates per match

0.76

1.03

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Eleven Wonders

1.05

Swedru All Blacks

0.76

allows per match

Eleven Wonders

1.03

Swedru All Blacks

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eleven Wonders+0.00on par

Swedru All Blacks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wonders ↓

Swedru All Blacks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Eleven Wonders or draw

71%

Eleven Wonders or Swedru All Blacks

70%

Draw or Swedru All Blacks

59%

Winning margin

Eleven Wonders wins by 2+

18%

Swedru All Blacks wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Eleven Wonders 1+ goals

68%

Eleven Wonders 2+ goals

32%

Eleven Wonders 3+ goals

11%

Swedru All Blacks 1+ goals

59%

Swedru All Blacks 2+ goals

23%

Swedru All Blacks 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)

59%

Swedru All Blacks (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wonders at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Swedru All Blacks away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wonders attack 1.05 + Swedru All Blacks defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Swedru All Blacks attack 0.76 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eleven Wonders scores more

41%

level

30%

Swedru All Blacks scores more

29%

Eleven Wonders at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eleven Wonders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff